Kevin Durant is ruled out for game six of the NBA Finals. The last game at Oracle arena. An Achilles injury that ripped through the basketball media as the Warriors came back to win game five, and brought general manager Bob Myers to tears postgame, is going to consume the minds of media and fans alike, leading up to Thursday’s game. As I write, its only been about ten hours since KD went down in the first quarter of last nights game, but to this point, consider my mind consumed.
Once the shock of seeing him go down, turned into consternation when you heard cheers from the Toronto fans, turned into realization that this injury is far more serious than the one that held him out prior; I began to think about what this means going forward.
For starters, with modern procedures, players are returning from Achilles injuries much faster than in past eras. Looking at players like Durant’s current teammate Demarcus Cousins, along with Wes Matthews in 2015 and Rudy Gay in 2017, it’s reasonable to presume KD will be back at some point late next season. To discern if this will take a toll on his ability to remain a top five player in the sport, is a little trickier. Again, with modern practices players have made a full recovery; it took some time, but Wesley Matthews is still the quick footed defender he used to be. Demarcus Cousins has shown enough to think he will be the player he once was, as well. However, there are far more examples of players experiencing a decline in explosiveness and overall effectiveness, see Elton Brand, Mehmet Okur, Brandon Jennings and Anderson Varejao. I will resist using examples like Kobe Bryant and Chauncey Billups who faced this battle at a much steeper age, or Dominique Wilkins who dealt with the injury almost three decades prior. Rather than saying this historical analysis presents a mixed bag, I would be more comfortable saying, there is little to compare this situation to. Being that Kevin Durant is the all-time elite player that he is, and very much in his prime, comparisons are lacking. This factor of the ‘unknown,’ pierces directly into the conversation that is, free agency.
Just 10-12 hours ago, it was an ‘almost’ guarantee (lol Stephen A.) that Kevin Durant was going to be leaving The Warriors for less greener pastures. By all accounts, he was fixated on New York, and most notably the Knicks. Every front office in basketball was prepared to enter free agency with Kevin Durant as the first domino to fall, provoking the events that would define the 2019 offseason. Now, instead of considering Kevin Durant, arguably the best player in basketball, and still in his prime; teams will undoubtedly adjust their view, seeing a player who will be 31 years old, likely 32 before he’s the same again. This begs the question, what does this summer look like now?
This is where I will share some opinions, quickly, and again, with only 10 or so hours of consideration.
- Kevin Durant is a very well-rounded player, yet shooting is his primary and most valuable skill. I trust in greatness, and his shooting ability should not crater, even with a loss of explosiveness.
- The previously mentioned ‘unknown’ factor should play a role in KD and agent Rich Kleiman’s decision making this summer. Lebron and Durant have made this one-year + player option deal common, but to me this situation calls for security. Counter point is that Cousins signed with the Warriors on a one-year deal coming off a similar injury, and in affect ‘bet on himself.’ Though, Cousins was not receiving the long-term, max offers that Durant will still garner.
- It’s hard not to think that this has a direct affect on the odds that Golden State retains Durant. First, the tribulations of this postseason have brought out the best in what seemed like at one point, an unstable locker-room. The organization has gone above and beyond to express how much KD means to each of them personally, and their teams’ chances of winning championships. I touched on this a bit earlier, but I do think all teams who were interested in Durant pre-injury, will still be offering him the max contract. However, its not humanly possible for those in front offices, members of the media, and fans, to not be a little uneasy when making that commitment. There will be articles written and calls to radio stations made, expressing fears of the unknown that their team just handed $170 million dollars. Point being, landing back in the arms of the Warriors is much more comfortable. What Durant has done in Golden State and the winning that will continue to happen while he rehabs, will ease the skepticism and impatience that would cast a cloud over New York.
- Anthony Davis is now the first domino to fall.
