The regular season is upon us and while its typical for fans to say the NBA season begins on Christmas, this year feels very different. Of course, the years of Lebron dominating the east are two years gone, and we’ve seen significant roster changes in Philly, Milwaukee and Boston. In the West, Warriors +400 to miss the playoffs is a trendy bet, and perhaps the two best NBA lineups reside in Los Angeles. What that amounts to in the West at least, is a season where November and December matters (looking at you Utah). Of course, we all can envision a May and June where the likes of Davis, Westbrok, Kawhi, Embiid and Giannis dominate league narratives, but early-on, I’m looking at these three players to send ripple affects throughout the standings.
Draymond Green
The variety of outcomes is vast for this Golden State team. You will hear from some, say that you shouldn’t sleep on a team that is still anchored by a core that won 73 games. From others, you will hear skepticism regarding Klay Thompson’s return from a June ACL injury, and concerns around their defensive prowess without him. I’ve even heard the terms, gap year, and ‘kick the can down the road’ attributed to this team, and I can see the logic behind it.
What we do know is that Steph Curry is going to make a push for this years scoring title and regardless of Durant and Klay’s absence, their offense should still light up new Chase arena and rank high in efficiency. Defense is the primary concern for this team, without stoppers in Thompson, Igoudala and Durant, they will have to rely on unproven wings like Robinson III, Jacob Evans or Alec Burks to provide one on one defense. Yikes, I know. The counter to that revolves around the idea that their defense starts and ends with Draymond Green. From 2014-2017 Golden State was by most accounts the best defense in basketball. Only one of those years did they have Kevin Durant. Other former Warriors can share credit for that success, Bogut and Livingston come to mind, but it all started with Draymond and Klay. Communication, proper rotations and switches can mask a lot of their deficiencies. You can count on their culture and Green’s leadership to make an impact. It seems like a decade ago, but Draymond Green was a revelation offensively, as well. In 2014-15 and 2015-16 Green added a respectable 3pt% to his passing and handling ability, while becoming one of the leagues most dynamic all-around players. It seems like too much of a coincidence that his efficiency drastically decreased in each of the Durant seasons thereafter.
The best case for the Warriors season is they float around the 4-6 seeds and avoid the best of the West in the first round. With development of some newer, younger players, and some chance of a Thompson return, could the Warriors remain contenders? Who knows, I just challenge somebody to tell Draymond Green it’s a ‘kick the can down the road’ kind of season.
Malcom Brogdon
Personally, the changes in the Bucks and 76ers rosters since last season are being slightly minimized. I love Josh Richardson but the loss of Jimmy Butler means Philadelphia has to find a new end of game, go-to ball handler. In Milwaukee, Malcom Brogdon is not only gone, but finds himself on a team who is determined to contend for their grasp on the conference. Brogdon has made steady improvements each of his three years in the league. Turning in a 50%FG, 40%3pt, 90%FT season just last year, he was a perfect fit, spacing the floor in a Giannis dominated scheme. His role in Indiana was meant to be the same, a secondary ball handler who earns his money as a reliable outside shooter and defender. That is until the lingering fear of Victor Oladipo’s recovery taking far longer than we all had hoped.
I think the case for Malcom Brogdon’s inclusion on this list begins with the idea that Indiana at full-strength can certainly compete in a 7 game series with anyone in the weaker Eastern Conference. Bogdanovic is a loss worth noting, though incoming Brogdon and T.J. Warren adds to an already deep, sound roster. Much like the Golden State I think Indiana needs to stay afloat in the range of a 4-5 seed without one of its best players. Home court in the first round and then facing a 1-3 seed after a grueling first round is their pathway to success. Malcom Brogdon’s emergence as a primary ball-handler is the only way I see this happening. He’s a true combo guard, oftentimes off the ball, can guard both guard positions well, and does create offense and pass when called upon. He just hasn’t been called upon with much frequency in the past. Last year he averaged 3.2 assists and 1.4 turnovers per game. With Oladipo out, that will need to be stretched somewhere into the 5-6 assists to 2 turnovers range. All the while not allowing his shooting efficiencies to drop too far. Maybe Aaron Holiday truly emerges and relieves some pressure, but in all likelihood, Indiana will need a new, more assertive version of Malcom Brogdon.
Dejounte Murray
I think the most intriguing aspect of this new-look Western conference, will be watching teams 7-11 sort themselves out. I fully expect San Antonio to be one of those teams, that has all the reason to expect a playoff birth, but will face a team of better or equal talent more than every other night out. Others like the Pelicans, Mavericks, Kings, see the Spurs’ usual spot in the playoffs as their spot to take in 2020. Until I see evidence of the contrary, I believe in Greg Poppovich, and whatever his secret sauce is. Still, this will be one of the greatest challenges of his long career.
Outside of Pop, other reasons for optimism are the development of the younger players on this roster. Lonnie Walker IV should have a role with the main club this season and a breakout season from him would elevate anyone’s projections for this team. More likely, is the return of Dejounte Murray who is healthy and back from injury to start this season. The praise for Murray after his sophomore season was deafening as he became the primary ball handler for a team who had just lost Kawhi Leonard. I see Derrick White as a defender and role player, Bryn Forbes as a spacer, and Lonnie Walker IV as a proverbial rookie. It’s going to be up to Dejounte Murray to whisk his way through this treacherous Western Conference. I have a lot of skepticism that he can do it. Despite the adoration for his game, his statistics in 2017-18 (his last season) leave a ton of areas for improvement. He needs to shoot the ball off the dribble the way he shoots the ball off the catch. He needs to drastically improve his playmaking (2.9 Asts – 1.7 TOs). And of course, remain healthy and available. There’s a lot of fans eager to see the Zion/Lonzo Pelicans or Doncic/Porzingis Mavericks reach the playoffs, over the undeniably more boring team in the Spurs. It’s up to Dejounte Murray to ward them off and keep San Antonio in the playoffs.